Weather Blog

Severe Weather Risk in North TX

Main Risk:  Isolated tornadoes/hail to golfball size, damaging t-storm wind to 75mph)

Risk Area:  Generally North of I-20 and east of I-35

Timing:  from noon to 6pm

Synopsis:

A front over NW Texas and Oklahoma will be the focus for thunderstorm development later today.  Storms will develop and spread into Northcentral Texas through midday and the afternoon and move east this evening.

There is a cap present above north Texas.  This morning, it appears the cap is not strong enough to totally suppress all thunderstorms, but may be strong enough to keep the severe weather risk north of I-20.

If the cap strengthens more than expected, most of the storms will stay to our north in OK.

Outlook for the rest of the week:

Tuesday – Breezy and Cooler

Wednesday – Sct. T-Storms (slight severe risk)

Thursday – Sct. PM T-Storms (moderate severe risk)

Friday – Clearing

Risk Table:

Severe T-Storm/Tornado Watch

DMA:  75%

Metroplex:  50%

Severe T-Storm Warning

DMA:  65%

Metroplex:  50%

Tornado Warning:

DMA:  40%

Metroplex: 20%

Changes for the weekend…

A late March cold front is moving across North Texas.

Thursday highs were in the mid 80s, but by Friday afternoon, temps will be nearly 30 degrees cooler, in the mid/upper 50s.

The moisture is deep enough for some sprinkles and clouds on Friday, but will gradually deepen to the point of a few scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Right now, it looks like the highest rain chances will be Friday night and Saturday morning, and even then, the showers should be light and widely scattered.

As a stronger front moves our way on Monday, we’ll see an increased risk of severe storms Monday afternoon and evening.

More wind for Wednesday

After a very windy Tuesday, the south wind will continue strong Wednesday as well.  A wind advisory is in effect today.

DFW recorded a wind gust of 39 mph on Tuesday, and other spots had winds gusting above 40mph.
Terrell:  41mph
Corsicana:  40mph
Sherman:  43mph

Our Wednesday winds (say that three times, fast!) won’t be quite as strong, but we’ll still see some winds gusting up around the 30-35 mph range.

We’re beginning to dry out from the rain last week, and the wind is starting to increase the fire danger a bit.  A Fire Weather Watch is in effect today for high fire danger, generally west of the metroplex.

A breezy week!

After a very wet week last week, finally, some typical March weather moves in.

Windy and warmer weather are in store for most of us.

By Monday afternoon, the wind may get close to 20mph, and with some wind Monday night and Tuesday morning, our low temperatures on Tuesday morning will be much milder, from 45-49 degrees.

The wind on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be stronger, 20 to 25 mph all week, so the March wind we’re used to will be here in full force all week!

Dallas/Fort Worth Easter Weather

Happy Easter.

Below is a link to the National Weather Service history of Easter weather in the Dallas/Fort Worth area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/CLIMO/dfw/holiday/deaster.html

 Enjoy,

Steve Mac

Check out “Tracking Texas Weather” tonight

We’ve got a great show for you this evening at 6:30pm on NBC5.

Meteorologist Steve MacLaughlin talks to a man that was hit by last year’s Haltom City tornado.  We’ll hear his survival story as the tornado was bearing down on him.  He’ll also speak with a photographer, who took pictures of the approaching tornado!

Chief Meteorologist David Finfrock shows us the extremes of drought and flooding that we’ve seen in the last three years.

Meteorologist James Aydelott will guide us through our new interactive radar on nbc5i.com, and the new animated radar on m.nbc5i.com-its perfect for your iPhone, Blackberry or other internet capable cell phone!

We’ve got more technology to share-NBC5’s Scott Gordon takes us through how we get live video from our Stormtracker H3 to your tv!

We’re providing weather information to you on our HD NBC5 channel as well!  We’ll explain how we crawl weather information in full HD!

We’re proud of this year’s edition of Tracking Texas Weather.  Its new, its HD, and our crew, both the meteorologists, and the highly skilled behind the scenes folks have worked hard to bring you this great show.

See you this evening!

Talk about a Gully Washer!

The Tuesday rain was indeed a gully washer!

Take a look at some of these rain totals:

 Officially DFW received 2.7″

Above 5″
Rowlett 5.0″
Honey Grove 7.2″
Lancaster 5.1″
Duncanville 5.6″
Richardson 5.0″
White Rock Lake 5.2″

4-5″
Celina 4.14″
Anna 4.8″
McKinney 4.3″
Wylie 4.8″
Greenville 3.9″
Waxahachie 4.3″
Maypearl 4.0″
Cedar Hill 4.2″
Love Field 4.6″
Grand Prairie 4.2″
Paris 4.0″

3-4″
Commerce 3.9″
Lake Lavon 3.7″
Cleburne 3.7″
Cooper 3.6″
Celeste 3.6″
Carrollton 3.5″
Caddo Mills 3.9″
Mineral Wells 3.3″
Perrin 3.4″
Jacksboro 3.1″
Graham 3.1″
Weatherford 3.1″

A Rainy Tuesday

Rainfall totals as of 7am Tuesday 

Its always good when we can get beneficial rain without much severe weather-and that’s what’s happening today.

We’ll see average rains from 1 to 2 inches across North Texas, with some spots seeing 3 to 4 inches.

This whole mess will finally move out tomorrow morning, and we may see some sunshine by Wednesday afternoon.

Severe Weather Outlook – Monday

Main risks:

–hail to quarter size

–t-storm winds to 70mph

–heavy flooding rain

–isolated tornadoes, especially in the higher risk area southwest of the metroplex.

Risk areas:

–slight risk of severe weather over all of North TX

–higher risk of severe weather southwest of the metroplex through the hill country

Timing:

–after 5pm west of the metroplex (see attached map)

–8pm to 4am metroplex

Summary:

A strong, slow-moving upper low will move into SW TX over the next 24 hours.  Small disturbances will rotate around that upper low, each setting off a round of thunderstorms.  Most of this morning’s severe weather threat will stay well NW of the metroplex, but as the next disturbance moves our way late this afternoon, we’ll see a new round of storms developing and moving across North TX this evening.

More disturbances will mean continued rain and t-storm chances through Wednesday morning, when the main upper low will finally move NE of TX.

The amount of evening instability is still a big question, but the upper level wind flow/dynamics are strong enough to warrant the risk of severe storms.  The risk of tornadoes will be greater to the SW of the metroplex.

If instability increases dramatically this afternoon, the tornado threat may spread northeast, including the metroplex.

Warning Table (likelihood of particular warning):

severe t-storm/tornado watch

DMA – 90%

metro – 70%

severe t-storm warning

DMA – 85%

metro – 60%

tornado warning

DMA – 40%

metro – 25%

flash flood warning

DMA – 80%

metro – 50%