Severe Weather Risk in North TX

March 31, 2008 at 5:51 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

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Main Risk:  Isolated tornadoes/hail to golfball size, damaging t-storm wind to 75mph)
Risk Area:  Generally North of I-20 and east of I-35
Timing:  from noon to 6pm
Synopsis:
A front over NW Texas and Oklahoma will be the focus for thunderstorm development later today.  Storms will develop and spread into Northcentral Texas through midday and the afternoon and move east this evening.
There is a cap present above north Texas.  This morning, it appears the cap is not strong enough to totally suppress all thunderstorms, but may be strong enough to keep the severe weather risk north of I-20.
If the cap strengthens more than expected, most of the storms will stay to our north in OK.
Outlook for the rest of the week:
Tuesday – Breezy and Cooler
Wednesday – Sct. T-Storms (slight severe risk)
Thursday – Sct. PM T-Storms (moderate severe risk)
Friday – Clearing
Risk Table:
Severe T-Storm/Tornado Watch
DMA:  75%
Metroplex:  50%
Severe T-Storm Warning
DMA:  65%
Metroplex:  50%
Tornado Warning:
DMA:  40%
Metroplex: 20%

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