Severe Weather Outlook – Monday

March 17, 2008 at 1:30 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

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Main risks:
–hail to quarter size
–t-storm winds to 70mph
–heavy flooding rain
–isolated tornadoes, especially in the higher risk area southwest of the metroplex.
Risk areas:
–slight risk of severe weather over all of North TX
–higher risk of severe weather southwest of the metroplex through the hill country
Timing:
–after 5pm west of the metroplex (see attached map)
–8pm to 4am metroplex
Summary:
A strong, slow-moving upper low will move into SW TX over the next 24 hours.  Small disturbances will rotate around that upper low, each setting off a round of thunderstorms.  Most of this morning’s severe weather threat will stay well NW of the metroplex, but as the next disturbance moves our way late this afternoon, we’ll see a new round of storms developing and moving across North TX this evening.
More disturbances will mean continued rain and t-storm chances through Wednesday morning, when the main upper low will finally move NE of TX.
The amount of evening instability is still a big question, but the upper level wind flow/dynamics are strong enough to warrant the risk of severe storms.  The risk of tornadoes will be greater to the SW of the metroplex.
If instability increases dramatically this afternoon, the tornado threat may spread northeast, including the metroplex.
Warning Table (likelihood of particular warning):
severe t-storm/tornado watch
DMA – 90%
metro – 70%
severe t-storm warning
DMA – 85%
metro – 60%
tornado warning
DMA – 40%
metro – 25%
flash flood warning
DMA – 80%
metro – 50%

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