Severe weather outlook, Tuesday, July 31

July 31, 2007 at 12:27 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Main Threat: Flooding rains, isolated dime sized hail or 60 mph winds
Threat Area: All of North Texas

Synopsis:
Lots of deep atmospheric humidity will fuel more thunderstorms today.
A few morning showers and thunderstorms will continue, mainly NE of the metroplex.
The main thunderstorm event will again be during the afternoon and early evening, with instability maximized by the warmest temperatures of the day.
Since there is no front to focus initial development, thunderstorms will again fire randomly, lasting about 30 minutes, decaying and new storms will form.
Storms that develop will be slow moving, and flooding rains may result.

Rainbows over Texas

July 29, 2007 at 1:02 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

We get lots of pictures sent to us of the beautiful Texas rainbows that we see so often. I got a rare chance to see a rainbow up close and personally, over Granbury in my friend Darrell’s Cessna 172-XP.

We were flying around the north side of a rain shower, with the afternoon sun behind us. The rainbow appeared as nearly a complete circle!!

Here are the pictures!



I posted a couple of movies as well, but since youtube compresses them so much, they’re a little harder to see, but still neat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vQsPZgFCmU

I’m not sure writing a country song about Rainbows over Texas would be very popular, but they sure are a beautiful sight to see.

Chasing History

July 28, 2007 at 7:22 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

As of the time of this blog, Barry Bonds is one home run away from tying Hank Aaron and two away from becoming the all-time king, only the third in Major League Baseball’s rich history. Ruth: 714. Aaron: 755. Bonds: ? Alex Rodriguez may be the only current player who can make a run at whatever number Bonds ends up with. Barry is hated by many people, but I love him. He has inspired me to look at our unbelievable weather statistics. As Barry Bonds chases history, the summer weather in North Texas continues to chase history as well.

Today is the 39th day this year in the 90s. By this point last year, we already had 76! In 2006, we were up to 15 triple digit days. That has still not happened once this year and will NOT happen before August begins. With that in mind, we are enjoying an incredibly rare summer. Check out these numbers:

The last time there were no 100 degree days in the entire month of July in North Texas: 1992.

July 2006 had 15 triple digit days and we ended up with 43 for the year.

July 2004 had 1 triple digit day and that was the only one for the entire year. Not coincidentally, that summer was the wettest ever. June, July and August had almost 19 inches of rain.

Then there’s 1980. All 31 days in July hit at least 100 and the entire year holds a record 69 triple digit days.

The last time and entire year stayed below 100 degrees: 1906 and 1973.

The average number of 100 degree days each year at DFW Airport: 16. Most of those, 7, come in August, on average.

The latest FIRST 100 degree day: August 23rd. That happened back in 1989.

The latest LAST 100 degree day: October 3rd. That happened back in 1951.

We all know that there’s plenty of summer left, even after summer is over. As a runner, I can tell you this summer has been wonderful. Aside from the flooding which is never good, the clouds and rain have kept our temperature low – The highest so far this year: 98 degrees. And the humidity has not been oppressive like back in 2004. Not bad for outdoor activities. But will it last?

Summertime thunderstorms-here, there, but NOT everywhere

July 24, 2007 at 6:37 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Summertime late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are a staple this year.

To make a thunderstorm, in any season, you need three things:
1. Deep Moisture (humidity in the atmosphere at the surface, and upward a few thousand feet)
2. Instability (once upward motion starts in the atmosphere, it will continue)
3. Trigger (something to start the upward motion)

Normally, during spring severe weather, the trigger is something like a cold front, or dryline. But in the summer, we have to have heat from the sun start upward motion in the atmosphere. Often times, the atmosphere is only moderately unstable, or is only unstable in a few spots. As the sun starts the heating, the first storms go up in the spots of highest instability.

Once the storms develop, they move slowly, and thanks to no strong upper level support, they often times rain down into their own updraft, choking off the storm after 45-60 minutes. As the rain cooled air falls to the ground, it hits and spreads out, acting as a “mini-front” and causing new storms to develop.

Also, storm clouds are big and thick, and block the sun, this can limit the instability in areas that are shaded by the storms-that may lower the rain chances a bit (unless that “mini-front” of rain cooled air is enough of a trigger)

Often times, only subtle differences in the summer mean one area gets thunderstorms and one area stays dry. Take Monday afternoon, Denton and Tarrant Counties got pounded, but most of Collin and Dallas Counties stayed dry!

Summertime? Finally?

July 15, 2007 at 11:13 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Well, its finally happened. The summertime upper level ridge that’s usually right over us by late June has finally appeared on the Texas weather maps. Up to this point, that ridge has been anchored over the west, leading to hot temps there.

This ridge usually stamps out the rain and helps push temps up above 100. This year, things are different. The landscape is so green, that it will take more energy to hit 100, and this year’s ridge is weak for now. Weak enough that by the end of the week, a few scattered thunderstorms could pop back up.

There are some indications that for the next two weeks, that ridge will sit mostly to our west, and Texas will be under the edge. That means no extreme heat, and it also means some scattered thunderstorms will continue to be in our forecast from time to time.

Holiday week will be Stormy

July 1, 2007 at 1:42 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

We finished June very wet, and just a bit short of the all time record for June rain at DFW. We finished June in 2nd place, with just over 11 inches of rain, but we needed about another half inch to hit the 1928 record, which is safe for another year.

The big upper level low that has plagued us for the last few days will continue to float over North Texas. That means more rain and thunderstorms will be around for the next week, including Independence Day.

The ground is still saturated, so we will continue to see flooding problems from any heavy rain that does develop.

There is some good news…. Some of our computer models suggest the upper level pattern will shift a bit, and by next weekend, the forecast will finally be a bit less rainy!

Have a great and safe 4th.

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