Severe Weather Threat returns to North TX

April 23, 2008 at 8:46 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
Risk Area:
Most of North TX, west of a line from Paris to Corsicana.  (see attachment)
 
Risk Time:
from 4pm to 3am
 
Main Threats:
-tornadoes
-hail to baseball size
-wind gusts to 80mph
-small scale flooding
 
Synopsis:
A upper level low now moving into North TX is already spreading instability toward Abilene.  Some showers and storms are already developing in the Permian Basin.  Instability will continue to increase through the day, and we’ll likely start seeing storms reach severe levels by mid to late afternoon west of a Wichita Falls to Abilene line.
 
These storms will move east, and as the upper level low catches up to the storms during the late afternoon and evening, the upper level wind field will become much more favorable for supercells containing tornadoes, very large hail and damaging wind.
 
Storms should clear North TX by early morning.
 
watch/warning risk table:
5pm-3am
severe t-storm or tornado watch:
DMA:  85%
Metro: 70%
 
severe t-storm warning:
DMA:  75%
Metro:  55%
 
tornado warning:
DMA:  50%
Metro:  25%
 
 
 

 

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