Tuesday Severe Weather Threat in North TX

April 8, 2008 at 6:23 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Main Risk

isolated baseball size hail, damaging t-storm wind gusts to 75mph

 

Risk Area

Generally northeast of a line from Wichita Falls to Weatherford to Lufkin (including metroplex)

 

Timing

from 2pm to 10pm

 

Synopsis:

A cold front moving across OK and TX today will provide the lift for strong and severe storms this afternoon, shifting east of the metroplex this evening.  A capping layer in the atmosphere will likely prevent storms from forming in North TX this morning, but as the front approaches this afternoon, storms will form, first in Southern OK, then spreading S into North TX by late afternoon and evening.

 

This Week:

Today’s cold front will stall, and then retreat north as a warm front tomorrow.  This, combined with an even stronger upper low will generate a more significant risk of severe storms on Wednesday.  The warm front location tomorrow will be critical to the severe weather forecast.  It will provide enough low-level focus to enhance the tornado threat on Wednesday.

 

Risk Table:

Severe T-Storm/Tornado Watch

DMA:  60%

Metroplex:  50%

 

Severe T-Storm Warning

DMA:  60%

Metroplex:  40%

 

Tornado Warning:

DMA:  30%

Metroplex: 15%

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