Very Warm, Dry Autumn

November 22, 2005 at 3:41 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

One of the main reasons it has been so warm this fall, is that we have had such little rain. Virtually every day, it has been sunny. And all that sun-baked earth gets very warm.
Long-range forecasts issued in previous months included north Texas in an above average rainfall pattern for this winter. But just this week, the new outlooks were published, and they no longer show above average rainfall for our area in the coming months. And that is especially bad news considering the current situation. Just look at these rainfall reports from around our region: http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/productview.php?pil=FWDESFFWD&version=1&max=25

As for the cause, it seems to be pure bad luck more than anything else. Many other parts of Texas have had average, or even above average rainfall this year. So there is no real state-wide drought in progress. The rains just seem to miss us each time. Take a look at this drought map for Texas: http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdicounty.png

But there is no La Nina or El Nino in progress, and those are the only times I feel confident in long-range forecasts. I think we just have to wait, and sooner or later our luck will change.

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