A Rainy Surprise

July 8, 2005 at 3:05 am | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Wednesday evening, I expected the approaching storm complex, moving down from the Texas Panhandle, to weaken and dissipate before reaching the Metroplex. But by 10 am on Thursday, I was proved wrong as heavy rain and lightning moved into our area. Obviously this upper level impulse was stronger than those of the previous nights. But I certainly couldn’t tell that last night. And I wasn’t alone. Here is the Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth, issued at 4:02 am, just a few hours before the MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) arrived:

DISCUSSION…402 AM MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME SKIRTING THE WESTERN METROPLEX AND MOVING SOUTH OF I-20 BEFORE MIDDAY. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AFTER LATE MORNING…THUS ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO… HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR TODAY. ELSEWHERE… TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION…MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. IR AND MOSAIC REFLECTIVITY BOTH SHOW A RAPID DISSIPATION OF CELLS JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS. WE DON’T THINK THE MCS WILL HAVE ANY REAL IMPACT ON THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX FROM ABOUT GAINESVILLE TO DENTON. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD REACH DFW AND DAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES…BUT OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AFTER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING…ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

At 4 am on Thursday, the weather service was still expecting little chance of rain, and temperatures in the 90’s. So I guess I don’t feel so bad about my forecast. And to tell you the truth, I was happy to be wrong this time. We really needed the rain.

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